In Pakistan, there is a strong possibility of a major drop expected in petroleum prices from 16 October 2025. According to industry sources, petrol prices are expected to decrease by Rs. 6.10 per litre, while the price of high-speed diesel may drop by Rs. 1 per litre. This expected change will bring relief to millions of Pakistanis struggling with rising inflation and fuel costs.
Reports suggest that the price of kerosene oil is likely to decrease by Rs. 2.75 per litre, and light diesel oil could see a reduction of Rs. 1.64 per litre. The working report regarding this adjustment has already been sent to OGRA (Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority), which will forward the final summary to the Ministry of Finance for approval. The final notification will be issued by the Ministry after official review.
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However, experts warn that if the government increases petroleum levy or taxes, the expected public relief might reduce or even disappear. Currently, the government charges a high levy on petroleum products, which directly affects final retail prices.
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According to industry data, since 1 October 2025, the ex-refinery price of petrol has recorded a 3.76% decrease, falling from Rs. 162.96 per litre to Rs. 158.86 per litre. This decline is largely due to the drop in global crude oil prices, which have also fallen sharply in recent days.
In the international market, the price of petrol has decreased from $76.51 per barrel to $73.71 per barrel, showing a continuous downward trend. Energy experts believe that if this trend continues, Pakistanis might receive further relief in the next 15-day review.
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Major Drop Expected in Petroleum Prices 16 October 2025
| Product Type | Expected Reduction (Rs/Litre) |
| Petrol | 6.10 |
| High-Speed Diesel | 1.00 |
| Kerosene Oil | 2.75 |
| Light Diesel Oil | 1.64 |
Global Market Price Comparison
| Period | Petrol Price (USD/Barrel) | Change (%) |
| 1 October 2025 | 76.51 | — |
| 15 October 2025 | 73.71 | -3.66% |
The reduction in global oil prices has created a positive impact on Pakistan’s local fuel market. However, the final decision still depends on the Ministry of Finance, which will issue a notification after reviewing OGRA’s summary.
If approved without any tax changes, this will be the first significant fuel price relief in several months, helping lower transportation and goods delivery costs nationwide. Many analysts say that such price drops can help control inflation and improve public purchasing power.
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Final Words
If the government maintains the current tax rates, Pakistanis could see petrol prices fall by over Rs. 6 per litre from 16 October 2025. The decrease in global crude oil rates is a positive sign, and if it continues, citizens can expect more relief in the coming price review.
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